iPad end?

Blogger Maxim Samoilenko, specifically for "gambling" understands the reasons for the fall of demand on the iPad and reason how Apple could correct the situation.

On the night of Monday, on Tuesday, Apple reported on the results of the second financial quarter, and everything is fine there: a profit of $ 13.6 billion, the pace of making money has only increased from last year, the margin has increased, the IPhone and Mac sales are on the next quarterly records, and so Next.

Against the background of all this grace, the results of iPad look like a large black spot. Over the past one and a half to two years, the iPad business is only bought up; For example, in the second financial quarter of 2014, 16.35 million tablets were sold, while in the reporting period they were “only” 12.62 million (the annual fall, thus, amounted to 23%).

Of course, even such a negative dynamics does not cancel the fact that IPad sales both have and remain a colossal business, let the specific gravity of this business in the common basket of the manufactured goods and services of Apple significantly decreased. Tim Cook from the quarter to the quarter continues to say that he believes in the bright future of this category of products and we should wait. IPAD statistics, user satisfaction, developers' revenue and the overall quality of the Apple tablet are still higher than that of competitors. Nevertheless, it is impossible to deny that the iPad shows not at all the results that they expect from it (especially considering what unprecedented growth rate this product showed immediately after the start of sales).

There are several reasons for this; I would allocate three key:

– Apple tablets are too good, and the cycle of their updates is much higher than that of smartphones; People simply do not see reasons to regularly update their iPad’s;

– Other categories of Apple products over the past period significantly expanded the occupied niches, "climbing" into the territory of the iPad and the cannibalizing tablets, we are talking about the iPhone 6 Plus and the new MacBook;

– The iPad is deprived of an understandable, easily verbalized, explained and convincing anchor function (or set of anchor functions), which would help to sell it to a wide audience.

I propose to discuss each of these three reasons and try to predict how Apple will respond to them in work on future iterations of his tablet.

Update cycle

Everything is clear here, and this reason is considered one of the key in the analysis of current problems of iPad. Indeed, if people update their smartphone about once a year or two (and this cycle in the West is largely determined by the validity of operator contracts), then with tablets the situation is completely different: iPad’s serve people for three, four years, and more. If you do not take into account the very first model of the Apple tablet, which is almost impossible to use today, then even the old iPad (starting from the second generation) satisfactorily or even well cope with the majority of the tasks that the average users set them: work with mail, Browsing, viewing photos and videos.

The last actually important step forward was the release in the fall of 2013, the iPad Air-a thin, light model of a tablet, which is really very different from the previous fourth generation iPad. Since then, changes in the iPad models have been insignificant: the display has improved the iPad mini 2, almost nothing has changed in the iPad mini 3; The iPad Air 2 received only a slightly thinner case, a better screen, new colors and Touch ID sensor (although it would seem that it is still necessary?).

All these are pleasant and useful innovations, but they did not convince many people to change their old tablet models for new ones. Unlike the iPhone, the output of each new model of which makes serious excitement all over the world and the possession of which is an important element of the status for a number of buyers, the iPad is more rapidly turning into a utilitarian, practical and not at all “fashionable” device that no one is already boasting. iPhone – status accessory, iPad – device for work and home entertainment; Even people who are closely following fashion and trends in techno, most likely, do not give a damn what kind of iPad Air you have – the first model or second.

In this sense, the iPad is more and more like Mac, the line of the line of which are also updated quite smoothly and without unnecessary noise (although I would say that in terms of attracting attention and “modes” of the Mac Updetes in the last couple of years, the iPad even surpassed that it was striking in itself ).

Finally, the iPad (as, indeed, any Apple product) is qualitatively made and, as a rule, serves its owners for a long time. It is not easy to break or spoil it, software works reliably and stable – again why buy a new tablet, when the old one is very good?

What to do with all this Apple? If you discard the theories of the conspiracy according to which Apple with each new release IOS intentionally slows down the work of old models, and if you do not allow the thought that Apple will suddenly decide to lower the quality of its products so that the tablets are quickly broken and burned out, then you need to put up with this situation with this situation and perceive it calmly. Revolutions cannot be performed every year, and even more difficult to expect regular breakthrough innovations in the framework of one product category. In the same way as it happens with Mac and iPhone, the iPad will be slowly but sure to receive new useful functions – and until the tablet from Apple is the best offer in the market, its buyers will be satisfied and there will be many of them.

In addition, just like the release of the iPhone 6, there was an end of the life cycle of many old and very successful iPhone models (especially 4 and 4s) and the emergence of a considerable number of owners of these devices, the desire to finally update (and we see what results of sales of the iPhone 6, including this circumstance), this year, I believe, many owners of the iPad of the second and third generations will wish to switch to new models. There is a chance that this will become one of the factors in return to the growth of sales iPad.

Cannibalization

Interesting, but one of the key problems of the iPad is that Apple with his own hands causes him tangible damage, releasing products “climbing” into the territory of the tablet. Over the past year alone, the iPhone 6 Plus and MacBook have been released, and each squeezes the iPad – one “from below”, the other “from above”.

Even the “ordinary” model of the smartphone, the iPhone 6, acquired a significantly larger screen diagonal compared to the iPhone 5s (4.7 inches versus 4); And there is nothing to say about the iPhone 6 Plus – with a screen of 5.5 inches, this is a full -fledged “Fabblet”, which in many uscakes now successfully replaces iPad users (and especially the iPad mini).

Moreover, Apple purposefully and consistently promotes 6 Plus as a device for work and productivity – at the presentation of the smartphone, we were shown how conveniently work with mail on the “Fable” (including due to the improved design of the Mail application, which contains more content), to brief; It is not hidden that the iPhone 6 Plus is a wonderful device for working with presentations, photos, videos; It is claimed that it is ideal for games (and all this is true). More recently, it was believed that this should be done on iPad, and not on a smartphone, but times have changed. An increase in the screen diagonal led to the fact that the iPhone 6 and especially 6 Plus were adhering with capacious batteries, which are enough for the whole day of intensive work; If earlier I knew that my iPhone 4 would be discharged for dinner, if I constantly read social networks in it and play games, then with the iPhone 6 and even more than 6 Plus, such a problem does not arise.

Until recently, going on the subway, I saw that many people sitting on the train watched a video, read or played games on iPad or other tablets. Today the situation has changed radically – the tablets almost disappeared from public transport. Everyone buried themselves in smartphones and “phabbans” – as it turns out, the screen diagonal on them is large enough to perform the above actions is quite comfortable; and convenience (let and with a stretch) use with one hand and the ability to put a large smartphone in a pocket to put on a large and uncomfortable tablet to put a large smartphone in a pocket.

The iPad is a wonderful thing, but now it is completely pointless to constantly carry with you; Personally, I use the tablet (very little) at work and (a lot) at home; There is no sense on the way in it. Maps, mail, reading Twitter tape, even short -lived browsing “on the go” – all this is much more convenient to do, taking an iPhone 6 from a pocket with a light movement, and not extracting a bulky iPad from the bag, which you still can’t hold it with one hand (and in the subway it is The problem is urgent).

The simple fact is added to the fire that many people – even if they understand why the iPad is needed, and want it – cannot afford to buy several devices at once. It is very easy to argue that in the life of a modern person there is a place for desktope, a laptop, a tablet, and a smartphone (and now smart hours), but most people on the planet simply cannot allow themselves to buy them all, and you have to choose something one (or maximum two).

In such a situation, nothing more universal than a smartphone is not invented: it is good enough to solve the main problems – both workers and household. Very many people, especially far from technology and need to work regularly at the computer, have only a smartphone: with its help they use social networks, watch videos, listen to music, check mail, and they do not need anything more and do not need anything else.

After the iphone 6 Plus release, I was sure that now the iPad had only one road: since they are “from below” violently settled, it remains to go “upstairs” – that is, to climb into the territory of the Mac. However, the recent emergence of a radically new MacBook confused all the cards. As many analysts note, Apple's fresh IPAD laptop with a keyboard and OS X, designed to solve problems that used to be allocated by iPad: the same mail, rich browsing, work with texts and documents. New MacBook – ultraportative, thin (13.1 mm), light (less than 1 kg) device designed for you to take it with you everywhere and always – just like iPad.

It is quite obvious that if there was still a place for the iPad in your bag in a conjunction with desktop MacBook Pro and MacBook Air, now there is no reason to carry the tablet at all. In the life of ordinary people, the iPad, thus, finally turns into a “home” device; Its niche narrows even more, and cannibalization with the efforts of Apple itself is now happening not only “from below”, but also “from above”.

I note in passing that from the point of view of the business, what is happening in many ways to the hand: sales of the iPad, the average retail price (Average Selling Price, ASP) of which is now equal to $ 418, are replaced by iphone sales, the ASP of which is only growing from the quarter to the quarter and is already 656 dollars, and even more so MacBook sales, which are more expensive.

From the point of view of strategy and support for the diversified line of products – I do not think that in the hand; It is quite obvious to me that there is a place for tablets in the era of mobile technologies, and Apple needs to develop and differentiate the iPad, creating unique advantages and niches for this device.

But what exactly will Apple do? It seems to me that the future of the iPad in this situation is the deepening and development of niches of its professional use. In the last year, Apple especially actively shows and tells how the iPad is used “on the go” pilots, drivers, logistics, doctors, directors, artists, musicians; This is still the most convenient form factor for work “in the field”, while the smartphone is too compact to carry out really difficult work on it, and the laptop is too cumbersome and clumsy.

What do all these people need from iPad? Reliability, strength, for a long time of autonomous work, high -quality screen – all this already exists. What is not in the iPad yet, but these people would come in handy? More universal input devices: firstly, Force Touch, which can greatly diversify the capabilities of the operation and control of the device “on the go”, and secondly, the stylus (or accurate digital feather), which is especially useful in mobile work with documents and will probably be useful to artists. Microsoft very convincingly shows the advantages of working with Surface Pen, and I will be surprised if the iPad does not move in the same direction – despite all the grin of Steve Jobs about the stylus during the iPhone premiere. Then, support for multi -storey, external drives (and, therefore, a more open file system) is also unlikely to damage.

Previously, the main concern and the argument against the fact that all of the above appeared in the iPad was an understanding that “normal” people whose file system, ports and stylus are scared by the device. And this is true – that is why all these things in the iPad were not previously needed. But, as I wrote above, today “normal” people use the iPad less and less, preferring the iPhone; and the iPad turns into a tool for professionals – which means that the argument is no longer relevant. Therefore, I am sure that the “professionalization” of the iPad is necessary, it will happen very soon, and we may see the first fruits this year. Yes, we already see – Apple's cooperation with IBM in the production of highly specialized software for iOS and aggressive movement in the corporate segment began precisely within the framework of this paradigm.

I note in brackets that in my case the iPad as was and remains a completely indispensable "home" device. At home I listen to music, watch films and YouTube, read books and articles, leaf on Twitter-and all this with a large margin is still more convenient to do on the iPad, lying on the sofa and using the benefits of a large screen. the iPhone is too small for this, and sit down at the table with MacBook or put it on your stomach is just laziness and inconvenient. However, how many people think in the same way as I do?

Anchor function and marketing

This item follows from the previous one: the obvious problem of the iPad (at least in the consumer segment of the market) was that many people simply do not understand why they need a tablet, and Apple cannot clearly explain this. The latest iPad presentations are clearly demonstrated: during the premiere of the iPad Air 2, Phil Schiller talked a lot about the technical characteristics, thickness, color and Touch ID, but never cited a single example of why and who needs iPad today today. In the light of what I described in the previous paragraph, this question becomes especially acute: people simply have enough smartphone and laptop or desktop, they do not need a tablet.

Remember how Steve Jobs showed us iPad. He sat on the sofa, threw his feet on his foot and began to demonstrate how convenient it is to work with mail on the iPad, how cool it leaf through the web page with a finger and read texts, listen to music, look at photos, watch videos, play. Jobs claimed that it is in these tasks that the iPad shows himself better than both the smartphone and laptop. And in 2010 these were golden words; iPad blew up the market precisely because Jobs was one hundred percent of rights.

But in 2015, the situation, as we have already noticed, changed: smartphones became larger, more powerful and universal, and laptops became easier, thinner and more productive and thus deliver a tangible response hit. As I have already noticed above in brackets, I still think that in almost all the iPad uses listed by Jobs, the iPad uses is still much more convenient; But the problem is not that many people may not agree with me. The problem is that the iPad today does not have one, two, three key anchor functions that are understandable to people far from technology.

Publicist and explore Apple, Neil Saibert recently described his experience in the Apple Watch testing in the Apple https://sister-site.org/triumph-casino/ Store – and in particular, talking with a variety of people who went to the store and tested a new device, he notes that the watch is understandable to many of the most ordinary people. But they are understandable not because people are interested and important to respond to messages, open the garage gates or order Uber from the clock; They are understandable because for these people Apple Watch are primarily a cute, pretty watch that show time and at which you can choose and configure funny main cycle screens. Once again: Apple Watch is a clock that show time (and also provide the opportunity for intimate communication with loved ones and help in sports and a healthy lifestyle – according to Apple's marketing pitch).

Many of us – geeks – it seems funny. Who is interested in the device about time – in 2015, when the dial shines, it seems, from each corner, and the phone always lies in the pocket? Much more interesting – yes! – respond to messages, open the garage gates and order uber right from your wrist. But do not overestimate the importance of uses for geeks and underestimate the need for ordinary people. The idea of ​​Apple Watch is that people who buy them because there are a cute watch with an animated butterfly or stomping Mickey Mouse and because you can send your girlfriend, wife, granddaughter or great-great-granddaughter, soon or later, it is not yourself. Noticing, they will begin to open the garage gates from them and order uber.

After all, this is how the iPhone took off at one time. The mass of people bought (and now buys) smartphones first of all because it is a phone from which you can call and send SMS. And only after some time, people found that calls and SMS are one percent of the mass of things for which they use a smartphone. Steve Jobs presented the iPhone as a telephone, an iPod with a touch screen and an Internet communicationman, and the third point then seemed the least important; And now the iPhone is 99% Internet communication and one percent of everything else.

And here we return to the iPad. Watch is easy to sell like a clock; iPhone is easy to sell like a phone – but how to sell iPad? What kind of device are these in the eyes of ordinary people? What iPad function is unique, understandable to the most far from technology to a person, due to what function of the iPad can be successfully positioned? It seems to me that today Apple does not give a clear answer to this question. Photo frame, as in the time of the first iPad? Do not laugh. Browsing, mail, music? It is not clear to many ordinary people (and it is not necessary, as they can be considered).

A pair of directions that can potentially be more interesting – video and games. Many analysts note that the popularity of ultradeyshev Noname tablets on Android, especially in Asia, is determined by the fact that this is the only screen in the house on which you can watch TV transmission, films and videos from the Internet. Video, TV – things that resonate with most of the most ordinary people.

Apple is still indecisive, but still moves in this direction (see. recently announced cooperation with HBO). Rumors are coming that soon a completely new video service will be presented to us; Many are sure that it will become a key feature of the next generation Apple TV, but I believe that the iPad will benefit from this service no less, or even more.

As for the games, here the potential is huge, and I already partially wrote about it in the last note and I plan to write more. I will only say that in order to sell iPad as a device, primarily designed for games, Apple needs to completely change the format of working with games, the concept of their distribution and relationships with developers and publishers.

However, in the situation with the future positioning of the iPad, there is a conflict of interests through "Professional device – consumer device". I wrote about the prigection in the previous paragraph, and there the need for differentiation, positioning and marketing is not so pronounced; If the device is convenient in operation and meets the requirements set before it, specialists and companies will buy it. And, as I also wrote above, the iPad becomes more rapidly becoming a tool primarily for professionals and businesses – and in this situation it becomes more difficult to sell it to ordinary consumers.

Therefore, I believe that the problem of positioning and forming a set of anchor functions for the average consumer Apple will solve with great difficulty; Instead of sucking from the finger the reasons why the iPad can be useful to your grandmother, Apple, I think, will concentrate on explaining why the iPad is useful to your wife-pilot or your father-logist. And in the Apple Store iPad will be set closer to the Mac section, while the company will attract the main attention of coming buyers using iPhone and Watch.

Apple has long been breeding iPhone and iPad, although both devices are portable and work on the same OS. In recent years, new smartphones and tablets have been shown by Cupertino company at different events; and often the iPad is represented precisely in conjunction with Mac. If you look at the open global vacancies of Apple, you will see that the company is looking for production managers and marketers for products segments, and the iPad with Mac are transferred through a comma, while the iPhone is a separate approach. Today, the iPhone and iPad are radically different products, for different audiences, with different positioning, and then this gap will increase.

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Summing up – I am sure that everything will be fine with the iPad; Yes, the tablets today compress to devices that occupy quite narrow niches, but there are still many of these niches, and Apple will work to ensure that they become even larger. Therefore, I expect that this year (most likely, in the fall), Apple will show a certain iPad Pro (possibly with a larger screen diagonal), more expensive, with support for Force Touch, possibly a digital pen, multi-speed, additional ports and interfaces, but preserving the basic principles and iOS philosophy – simplicity, clarity and reliability.

Such an iPad will be a powerful, universal, but fundamentally mobile device with an existing huge number of applications written precisely for it, including a professional software set from IBM. And such a device will become an absolutely indispensable solution for companies and individual professionals-which they buy, will use it for many years, not updated, but after three to four years they will again buy iPad, and then another one.

And Apple will very much make such a development of events. How it is satisfied with the situation with Mac, which today – thirty years after the launch of the line – slowly but rightly growing.